Apparel
·
Lookback
A 97% restock rate was hiding a $310K fake-tracking ring.
A 12-month lookback for a fast-growing intimates brand. Almost everything that came back was restocked, so nobody was looking for the serial returners and the FTID ring underneath.
in return abuse
abusive returns caught
model accuracy
The challenge
A 97% restock rate made returns look clean
This fast-growing intimates brand sells at an average order of about $230, with roughly 16% of sales by value coming back. Almost all of it, 97%, went back on the shelf, and by the usual measures that is a well-run returns operation. It also explains why nobody was looking closely. A high restock rate says the items that arrived were fine. It says nothing about returns that were refunded but never arrived, or about the same people returning under different email aliases. The CX team had no automated way to spot label manipulation or coordinated schemes, so each return was accepted at face value and each refund went out on schedule.
What Pinch found
A fake-tracking ring took $310K+ across several states
The ring was the clearest find. Coordinated actors manipulated return labels to reroute packages, and the evidence was in carrier data: wrong-ZIP deliveries, regional convergence and carrier failure codes that repeated across accounts. Seen one return at a time, each case looked like a shipping problem. Clustered by identity, accounts that looked unrelated became one network. Beyond the ring, suspect abusers used email aliases to keep extreme return rates out of sight, and a smaller egregious group sent empty returns. At the other end, the top 0.6% of customers drove 6% of purchases with no differentiated experience.
FTID ring. Coordinated actors rerouting packages through label manipulation across several states.
Suspect abusers with extreme return rates and patterns across email aliases.
Egregious abuse: serial fraud and empty returns.
In purchases from the top 0.6% of customers, with no differentiated experience.
Coordinated actors manipulated return labels so packages were rerouted across several states while refunds went out. A 97% restock rate hid it.
The response
Shut down the ring, keep refunds fast for others
Pinch recommended denying returns and cancelling future orders for the FTID ring and other egregious abusers, with carrier alerts on flagged routes. Suspect returners would be refunded on warehouse receipt instead of on request, with photos and closer inspection. The top customers would move in the other direction: instant refunds at carrier scan, exchange rebates and premium support. The model behind these decisions caught 9 in 10 abusive returns at 98% accuracy.
Egregious abusers
Block
Deny returns and cancel future orders.
FTID ring
Block
Deny returns, cancel future orders and alert carriers on flagged routes.
Suspect returners
Friction
Refund on warehouse receipt, require photos and inspect more closely.
Best customers
Reward
Instant refunds at carrier scan, exchange rebates and premium support.
How Pinch worked
Carrier data exposed what restock data could not
Pinch combined 12 months of order, return and carrier-tracking data. Pinch ID clustered emails, addresses, phones, devices and payment methods so that aliases resolved to one customer. Ensemble models separated egregious abuse from suspect behavior. A dedicated FTID model, trained on carrier data, looked for label manipulation, delivery anomalies and return-to-sender fraud. VIP segmentation identified the loyalists who should get a better return experience. Every order and return was scored on 100 risk signals.
Pinch ID
Identity clustering across emails, addresses, phones, devices and payment methods.
Ensemble abuse models
Separate egregious from suspect abuse.
FTID detection
Trained on carrier data to catch label manipulation, delivery anomalies and return-to-sender fraud.
VIP segmentation
Loyalists identified for a better return experience.
The takeaway
Brand details are anonymized. Figures come from the brand’s own order and return data.
Industry
Apparel
Size
$50M to $100M sales
Platform
Shopify
Solutions
Return Abuse
Lookback
12 months
At a glance
~16%
Return rate by value
~$230
Average order value
97%
Restock rate
Multi-state
Spread of the FTID ring
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Free lookback · for qualified brands
See what you lost last year. Free.
01
Share 12 months of data.
Install the Shopify app or SFCC cartridge, or send order, return and claim exports.
02
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What you lost to return and claims abuse, and who took it.
03
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